Many people are entangled in the specific numbers, whether it's 2 trillion, 3 trillion, 5 trillion, or 10 trillion. I don't think it's necessary, since the central government is about to start leveraging! It's like a car driving onto the highway, does it matter if it's driving at 80 km/h, 100 km/h, or 120 km/h? The most important thing is that the car has started moving!

I think the meeting exceeded expectations and even marked a significant shift. However, it seems that there is quite a bit of disagreement. Bears: They didn't see specific amounts; Bulls: They saw the policy direction! It's all about where you sit determining what you think.

In summary, both bulls and bears heard what they wanted to hear, and next week they will start directly! Therefore, next week's market is very crucial. I dare not say that it will rise immediately, but the short-term panic selling should end.

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Once the bow is drawn, there is no turning back. Ai Gu Jun's understanding is that last year's August 28th wave of national will was once mocked by bears. If this time the bull market fails again, no one will believe it in the future! This time, there is no room for failure. What they want is a slow bull market, not a crazy one, it's that simple.

My view is that today's fiscal press conference further confirmed that the policy has shifted. As a typical policy market, looking from the national will, a new round of the bull market cycle has been established!

Of course, after the first stage of the bull market, it is quite normal to retract by half or even more... and then start the second stage. So be a little cautious in the short term, you may have to go through a tug of war, and wait until the sentiment + trading volume stabilizes before you act, there's no need to rush to bottom fish.

But in the big direction, the crazy bull market is over, but a slow bull market is indeed worth looking forward to. Just like someone saw the three glasses of water at the finance father's meeting and drew a picture, what do you think?

1. The Ministry of Finance press conference has been widely shared! Securities firms: A significant shift marking the start of central government leverage

At 10 a.m. on Saturday, the Ministry of Finance held a press conference and answered questions from reporters, introducing the "strengthening of counter-cyclical fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development" related situation! Disclosing five major aspects of the growth-stabilizing package of measures, full of sincerity. CITIC Construction Investment said that the Ministry of Finance press conference marked the start of central government leverage.

Comment: For Saturday's meeting, A shares directly benefited in three directions, one is debt conversion concept stocks, one is banks, and one is real estate! Indirectly beneficial to industries highly linked to local governments, such as infrastructure, PPP environmental protection, etc.The debt restructuring is so hot that it's simply being hyped up. So, Monday might be quite awkward, either you can't buy at all, or as soon as you rush in, the capital will knock you down! Those who chase highs will have a tough start on Tuesday.

Of course, debt restructuring aligns well with the habit of domestic capital chasing new trends, and it has a lot of room for imagination, potentially becoming a new direction for domestic speculation. Companies like **Cinda Real Estate** and **Yinbaoshanxin** are quite core, while AMC's **Mongolian Grass Ecology** and PPP's **Energy-saving Tiehan** are also worth watching to see if there are massive orders for a one-word board!

Secondly, there are banks and real estate. Banks have clear capital injection benefits, but the gains should not be too significant. Real estate stocks have been adjusted for several days, and there may be a few that hit the daily limit.

This time, the focus on safeguarding people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and fighting deflation is relatively less. From this perspective, it has a bearish impact on cyclical and large consumption stocks. However, the foreign capital's rumors about subsidies for a third child and promoting consumption may not necessarily fall through; we need to wait for the Ministry of Commerce to make a statement!

In summary, I don't believe that the second phase of the market is a bull market for municipal debt restructuring, real estate, banks, infrastructure, and cyclical stocks. What era is this? If we are still speculating on these old stories, I would be quite speechless.

Regarding the recent press conference by the Finance Ministry, I believe it is of great significance in the long run. First, it establishes the signal of shifting from a contractionary fiscal policy back to an expansionary one; second, it basically clarifies that the central finance "will" leverage up! For the stock market, is there any greater long-term benefit than this?

2. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI up by 0.4% year-on-year in September, PPI down by 2.8% year-on-year

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in September, the CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.4% increase, while rural areas saw a 0.6% increase; food prices rose by 3.3%, non-food prices fell by 0.2%; consumer goods prices increased by 0.5%, and service prices increased by 0.2%. In September, the PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year and by 0.6% month-on-month; the prices of industrial producers' purchases fell by 2.2% year-on-year and by 0.8% month-on-month.

Comment: China's CPI in September rose by 0.4%, which was expected to be 0.6%, falling short of expectations. This was mainly due to the rise in prices such as vegetables and food, while prices for cars, air tickets, and hotel accommodations were all falling, mainly due to severe internal competition!

Currently, the price of consumer goods for people's livelihoods is rising, and everyone will feel that the prices of vegetables, fruits, etc., in October have increased even more, including the previous price increases in public utilities such as water, electricity, and gas. However, large consumption such as housing, cars, home appliances, and travel is still not very good. But for the large A (referring to the Chinese stock market), it mainly depends on expectations; September is already history, and these two data points do not have much significance!To be frank, the pressure for economic recovery is still quite significant, so it's time to make up our minds. We need to boost the stock market, the real estate market, and the CPI (mild inflation) to help the Chinese economy break out of the negative feedback loop.

This recent surge in the stock market, followed by a sharp drop, has trapped trillions of yuan in high positions. This, in turn, further squeezes consumption and weakens everyone's confidence, which is definitely not a viable approach! Apart from a slow bull market, our stock market has no other way out.

3. Seven departments including the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): Study on including stock index futures and treasury futures in the opening up of specific varieties

On Friday night, the State Council forwarded the "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision, Guarding Against Risks, and Promoting High-Quality Development of the Futures Market" by the CSRC and six other departments. The "Opinions" outline 17 key measures across 8 areas, including the steady promotion of the opening up of the futures market and the study of including stock index futures and treasury futures in the opening up of specific varieties.

Commentary: The opening up of stock index futures, what signal does this send? It's also in line with the situation, as not opening up is useless since there are overseas A50, triple short ETFs, etc.! To attract large funds, corresponding hedging tools must be provided.

A-shares indeed cannot go back to the past, and retail investors are thinking that they can only go long and not short, but this is impossible. The reason is that the market has grown, and one-sided surges and crashes are harmful to the credibility of the large A market. Just like this round, it first surged by 1000 points, then plummeted by 5000 points, playing like happy beans, who would still be willing to play long-term?

The significant fluctuations in A-shares are caused not only by retail investor sentiment but also by the exacerbation of futures, the stirring up of high-frequency quantitative trading, and the fanning of flames by foreign capital...! Such extreme long and short positions are indeed not normal.

4. The original box of Feitian Moutai in 2024 falls to 2300 yuan

The latest wholesale reference price disclosed by the liquor price today shows that the price of the 2024 Feitian Moutai single bottle is reported at 2240 yuan/bottle, unchanged from the previous day; the 2024 Feitian Moutai original box is reported at 2300 yuan/bottle, down another 20 yuan from the previous day.

Commentary: Feitian Moutai has started to lower its prices again, with the original box falling to 2300 yuan, down 20 yuan; the single bottle price is reported at 2240 yuan, falling back to before the National Day! This is the power of the trend; once formed, prices are hard to hold.Additionally, it is said that more than 20 distributors of Kweichow Moutai were preparing to hold a press conference today, but it was suddenly called off for unknown reasons. The distributors had attempted to initiate legal proceedings to protect their rights, but were unable to file a case locally!

It was supposed to be the peak season for white liquor with the saying "Golden September and Silver October," but Moutai has entered a tumultuous autumn. This indicates that high-end consumption this year is indeed very challenging. Even though the stock market surged before the festival, holiday consumption did not show a significant improvement, and everyone's desire to shop has been dashed.

Aigu Jun believes that a bull market in stocks can drive a certain level of consumption, but the premise is a slow and steady bull market. Only when most people make money can there be the motivation and confidence to consume. This weekend, there is a lot of bad news for big consumption, but the positions are not high, so the impact should not be significant!

5. CICC: Investigated for Sponsorship Business Issues

CICC announced on Friday evening that it received a notice of investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on October 11, alleging that the company was not diligent in its sponsorship business for the initial public offering of stock by Sile Xin. The CSRC had already filed a case against the company on September 25, 2024. The company will actively cooperate with the investigation and fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required by regulatory authorities. The company's current operating conditions are normal.

Comment: After applying for a loan limit of 10 billion, CICC barely managed to pull a board on Friday, becoming the new flag bearer for securities firms! In the evening, it was announced that the company was under investigation by the CSRC, leaving those who followed confused.

The timing of this is questionable, whether it was the company's own folly or a requirement. Honestly, our expectation management is really not good. Is it that the securities firms themselves feel that the rise is too much? Are they about to start actively cooling down?

However, I think the impact is not very significant. Currently, securities firms are generally protected, giving a few sweets and then a tap! Moreover, compared to Oriental Fortune, Tianfeng Securities, or even CITIC Securities, CICC's appeal to the securities sector is too weak, and its ups and downs are not that important.

At present, the securities sector has only risen by 30% from the bottom, is that a lot? For the market to improve, the securities sector needs to exert its strength again. When the market gets back on track, other sectors will slowly take over and lift. At that time, the "scoundrels" can be abandoned, otherwise, you will be trapped for several years.

6. Illegal Clearing Reduction! Shanghai and Shenzhen regulators quickly take action, ordering repurchases.On October 11th, both the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau and the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau took action against Wang Xiaoqing, Sun Xiaowen, and Wei Changwei, three investors who violated regulations by reducing their holdings. Administrative regulatory measures were imposed, ordering them to repurchase the illegally reduced shares, pay the price difference to the listed company, and record the incident in the securities and futures market integrity file.

Commentary: Over the weekend, the village took a firm stance against shareholders' illegal share reduction activities. The Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau warned against crossing the red line of illegal share reduction, and the Beijing Stock Exchange expressed its determination to strictly crack down on such violations! They have also set an example, with Sun Xiaowen and Wang Xiaoqing being ordered to repurchase and pay the price difference for their illegal share reductions.

Recently, more than 200 share reduction announcements have been one of the main reasons for the market's cooling down. The stock market has just shown some signs of recovery, and major shareholders are eager to reduce their holdings, causing panic among investors! The exchange responded to the market's call and issued penalties to those who violated the regulations, which is commendable!

In summary, the recent wave of share reductions is seriously contrary to the current policy orientation. If A-shares want to rise, it's impossible to both transfuse blood and bleed at the same time! This would be counterproductive, so what's the point of playing the game.

Aigu Jun wants to say that if the sale is in accordance with regulations, everyone has nothing to say, and at worst, they can vote with their feet. However, if it's an illegal share reduction that crosses the red line, then there should be a heavy penalty! It's necessary to make an example to deter others. The money from illegal share reductions should be compensated to investors.

Weekend market talk:

Other news.

Let go of the belief that "trading new stocks must make a profit" and don't be blinded by short-term price surges. Recently, newly listed stocks have seen dramatic price fluctuations, with prices doubling or even multiplying by tens on the first day, and then they start to plummet. Be careful with this kind of play.

The interest rates on existing mortgages will be uniformly adjusted in batch on the 25th. For homebuyers who bought at high prices in the past few years, the mortgage interest rate is finally going to be reduced! You can save more than a hundred, or even hundreds of yuan per month, and enjoy a few more meals.

Ren Zeping and Dan Bin had a quarrel. Dan Bin said: Ren Zeping is not an economist, but a clown; Ren Zeping said: Dan Bin's company's product performance has suffered large losses, and the only thing he promotes every day is those few.How to put it, Dan Bin should be stronger in specific investment opportunities, but it has indeed been wrong to "short" A-shares in recent years. Ren Zeping's advantage lies in his grasp of the macro situation, but he doesn't understand industries and individual stocks, and his random bullish calls have easily misled some retail investors.

The Shanghai Party Secretary met with Zhang Lei. This signal is quite significant; Hillhouse Capital's Zhang Lei has been heavily invested in China since 2000 and once made a fortune. However, in recent years, he has faced some adversity and has even been penalized by the China Securities Regulatory Commission!

For our enterprises to rise and for the capital market to rise, we need not only outstanding entrepreneurs but also excellent investors. Just like Warren Buffett is the anchor of the U.S. stock market, inspiring countless people worldwide to learn value investing and invest in U.S. stocks.

Lebanon will import mobile phones and other electronic products from China. The wealth is now coming our way; domestic mobile phone and pager manufacturers should seize the opportunity.

Tencent's WeChat HarmonyOS native version has officially been listed in the Huawei store. This adds fuel to the fire for the Huawei HarmonyOS concept.

Cross-border payment has been quite popular over the weekend. The capacity of this theme is too small, and there are also logical flaws, so it's better to make a quick profit and exit quickly.

Overall, the heat of the bull market over the weekend has gradually cooled down, and people are not discussing it much anymore. Several days of consecutive sharp declines have dampened many people's enthusiasm! Especially for new investors, it is said that they have gone from a wave of account openings to starting to close accounts.

However, in these 6 days, 14 trillion yuan worth of transactions have taken place, almost half of the A-shares' circulating plate has been exchanged. With so much capital coming in, you don't have to doubt that the market will not end just like that! Looking at the annual performance, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have also gotten rid of the bottom, and there is indeed no reason to be more pessimistic than before.

In terms of themes, with the decline in trading volume, the general rise in the market has ended! The active theme may start, such as cross-border payment, HarmonyOS, autonomous driving, and debt restructuring. As long as the volume is above one trillion yuan, the theme can still be very exciting.

I won't say much more about other things; don't go crazy with bullish views when the market rises and bearish views when it falls! The most important thing now is to hold on to your positions and be patient! Give the market more time; the future is still bright.