Today, the index performed very strongly, and individual stocks also showed a good profit effect. 5,000 stocks rose, 121 stocks hit the upper limit, with a median increase of +2.59%! Have you all made money? It's a day to win without effort.

Yesterday, various groups were still very depressed, but today they have become active again. Even the new investors who shouted to cancel their accounts have started to feel that they can do it again! They are also thinking about whether to add more positions quickly to get back to breakeven.

In essence, everyone is always held hostage by the rise and fall, looking up when it rises and looking down when it falls, with too much consistency in emotions! This market is always like this, with too few patient funds, and everyone wants to fight for every moment!

Tonight, some people are optimistic again, but I still want to remind you that the crazy bull market is over. Next, let go of two illusions: First, the illusion that the market will force a squeeze, rushing to 3700 to untie everyone who entered last week; Second, the illusion that it will continue to fall sharply, giving everyone the opportunity to go all-in below 3000.

Advertisement

In short, the market will return to normal next, and a slow bull market can be expected for a while. It is estimated that it will fluctuate around 3200-3500 for a while! I have only one sentence, believe in the national fortune, and do more for China! The return will not be bad.

1. Central Bank: The increase in social financing scale in September was 3.76 trillion, and M2 was higher than expected.

The financial data for September was announced, (1) the increase in new RMB loans was 1,590 billion yuan, with market expectations of 1,745 billion yuan, and the previous value was 900 billion yuan. (2) The social financing scale was 3,760.4 billion yuan, with market expectations of 3,516.7 billion yuan, and the previous value was 3,031.1 billion yuan. (3) M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with market expectations of 6.3%, and the previous value was 6.3%; M1 increased by -7.4% year-on-year, with the previous value being -7.3%.

Comment: The financial data for September is out, with social financing exceeding expectations and RMB not meeting expectations. However, M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with an estimate of 6.4%, which is clearly higher than expected!

And the stock market has made a contribution. Due to the sharp rise in the stock market at the end of September, some funds accelerated the return from channels such as financial management, driving the rebound of M2. Why is it necessary to drive a bull market? This is the reason, the stock market can activate the lying funds when it is hot.

Of course, from yesterday's CPI, today's export data, and social financing data, the overall situation is still average. It shows that the current economic pressure is still quite large! This is also one of the major risks of A-shares: strong expectations and weak reality. If the fundamentals do not improve, it will be difficult for the big A to continue to be speculated.But today is only Monday, and the September data has already been released, indicating that the higher-ups think it's quite good. If the performance was poor, it would generally be delayed until after the market closes on Friday, you know what I mean! So, at least tomorrow the index can still make a surge.

2. State-owned major banks seek opinions on repurchase and increase in loan business, and it is expected to introduce internal details by the end of the month.

Journalists have learned from relevant channels that a state-owned super large bank has recently issued an internal draft seeking opinions on loan products related to listed companies and major shareholders' repurchase and increase in strategic investment in stocks. The relevant internal details are expected to be introduced by the end of this month at the earliest.

Comment: The central bank previously mentioned the increase in repurchase loans, and state-owned major banks have begun to implement it. The interest rate is not lower than 2.25%, and the loan time is between 1 to 3 years. Some banks have also set a threshold of more than 5 billion yuan in market value!

After the introduction of this detail, it is estimated that many companies will actively move. After all, first, they can respond to the call, and there is no pressure on capital speculation. Second, they can arbitrage. Those with high dividends and company management that considers undervaluation and dividend arbitrage space will definitely be active.

Aigu Jun believes that 300 billion yuan should also be introduced for stock investors to buy stocks at low interest rates. The current two-way interest is still relatively high, many exceeding 5%. Why can listed companies enjoy the good thing of low-interest increase? We stock investors also want to buy at low interest rates.

3. Explosive performance! Semiconductor leader leads the third quarter report.

North Hua Chuang: It is expected that the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 will be 4.13 billion yuan to 4.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.19% to 64.69%.

Inspur Information: The net profit for the first three quarters is 1.25 billion to 1.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61.34% to 74.24%.

Hai Guang Information: The first three quarters are expected to be profitable by 1.408 billion to 1.586 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.16% to 75.9%.Will Semiconductor Co., Ltd.: Preliminary profit of 2.267 billion to 2.467 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 515.35% to 569.64%.

Commentary: Tonight, North Microelectronics, Inspur Information, Hygon Information, and Will Semiconductor all announced their Q3 earnings forecasts, with year-on-year growth rates that are very impressive, and there is no lag in sequential growth.

The prosperity of domestic semiconductor equipment is a foregone conclusion. This adds fuel to the fire for technology stocks! Huawei-Semiconductors have the potential to become the second main theme after finance.

If there is a long bull market in A-shares, I hope it is a technology bull. Technology can drive more popularity, and we have indeed made progress. Focusing on Huawei, chip semiconductors, and HarmonyOS software, core technology is the key point for future speculation!

However, there are a few caveats: First, there are very few companies in A-shares that truly possess core technology. Second, technology stocks are prone to high valuations that can be easily inflated. Third, there is the hidden danger of share reductions! If there is a speculative boom, large funds may also accelerate share reductions to cool down the market.

Therefore, while big technology indeed has the potential to become the second main theme, it is recommended to approach it with short-term speculation! This is because there are too many untrustworthy players in this direction, with a mix of good and bad, and it is easy to be left standing at a high position after a speculative surge.

4. The photovoltaic industry has reached a consensus on "strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing 'involution-style' vicious competition."

Recently, the market price of photovoltaic products has continued to decline, and the entire industry has fallen into an irrational cycle of vicious competition. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a special symposium on preventing industry "involution-style" vicious competition in Shanghai on October 14, 2024. Entrepreneurs and representatives fully communicated and exchanged views on "strengthening industry self-discipline, preventing 'involution-style' vicious competition, strengthening the market's survival of the fittest mechanism, and smoothing the exit channels for backward and inefficient production capacities," and reached a consensus on the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

Commentary: Today, photovoltaic companies in Shanghai held a special symposium on preventing industry "involution-style" vicious competition! Longi Company stated that currently, no party is demanding production cuts.

Now, the leading photovoltaic companies have invested tens of billions to build production capacity, and everyone is fiercely competing. It is quite difficult to administratively require production suspensions or reductions in the short term! The photovoltaic industry still has to endure.The industry has reached a consensus that it is estimated that soon various companies will introduce policies to reduce their positions; otherwise, there will be no food to eat. The photovoltaic and other new energy sectors can be watched for opportunities in the near future!

Daily Market Chatter:

Other news.

The largest-scale Double 11 has begun. This year's Double 11 has started earlier and is coupled with large-scale government subsidies. It remains to be seen whether it can stimulate everyone to buy, buy, buy!

The latest data shows that the amount added to the cart in Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room increased by 20% year-on-year, and the speed of transactions breaking 100 million yuan in several Taobao live broadcast rooms exceeded last year. I hope the stock market will be more powerful and drive Double 11 consumption.

Shenzhen: It is accelerating the establishment of a 10 billion yuan Shenzhen Semiconductor and Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund. This is the first city in the country to clearly support integrated circuits with special bonds, which adds fuel to the fire for semiconductors.

Kairuide Chairman and General Manager Ji Xiaowen has been released from detention. This is the first chairman to be released from detention after the solicitation of opinions on the Private Economy Promotion Law! In addition, the actual controller of Zangge Mining, Xiao Yongming, has been released from residential surveillance.

In the past, when the chairman was detained, the listed company would have a bombshell. Now that the detention has been lifted, the stock price can be speculated on again! Those interested can look for the former detained listed company bosses.

200 billion yuan of incremental funds, the China Securities A500 Index ETF will be listed tomorrow. This is an important index recently introduced by the authorities, with the first batch of 10, 5 landing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 5 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange! It can bring 200 billion yuan of incremental funds, but some have already started to build positions.

Tonight, the US stock market's S&P hit a historical high again, while Chinese concept stocks fell by nearly 2%, and the A50 once soared, but now it has been smashed back! China and the US are now competing for global funds. When the US stock market rises, ours fall. Now it's a critical moment.In summary, the upcoming performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is crucial. First, it is necessary to eliminate the bears and maintain a slow bull market; second, policies should still be introduced to strike while the iron is hot and give the market more confidence!

The girl said, "Forget about buying the necklace, let's go all in on the stock market."