According to the latest analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global public debt is projected to reach 100 trillion US dollars by the end of this year, accounting for 93% of the global GDP. The IMF pointed out in its latest Fiscal Monitor report (also known as the global public finance development overview) that by 2030, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to approach 100%. The report warns that governments around the world need to take decisive measures to stabilize debt levels. The future debt scale of countries such as the United States, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom may further expand, calling on governments to control borrowing.

Deputy Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, Era Dabla-Norris, stated:

It is time for governments around the world to rectify their finances. All countries need to make strategic adjustments to reduce debt-related risks.

He further warned that delaying action would bring significant risks:

Waiting is dangerous: The historical experience of the relevant countries shows that high debt levels can trigger negative market reactions and weaken fiscal flexibility in dealing with future (economic) shocks.

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The IMF also pointed out that in the face of rising funding needs for promoting the transition to clean energy, dealing with an aging society, and ensuring security, there is a general lack of political will among countries around the world to cut spending, which makes the "debt outlook face significant upside risks."

Dabla-Norris emphasized: "Actual debt levels may be higher than our expectations." The IMF report stated that the number of countries with continuously increasing global debt is expected to exceed half and account for about two-thirds of the global GDP.

The IMF's "debt risk" framework shows that in extreme scenarios, by 2026, the ratio of global government debt to economic output may rise to 115%, nearly 20 percentage points higher than the current forecast level.The United States' debt-to-GDP ratio could even reach 150%. According to IMF calculations, at the beginning of this century, this ratio in the U.S. was less than 60%, and it has now more than doubled.

The IMF points out that the rise in debt may be due to a variety of reasons, including weak economic growth, tightening financial conditions, fiscal slippage, and increased economic and policy uncertainty.

Importantly, countries are becoming more vulnerable in the face of global factors that affect their financing costs, including spillover effects from increased policy uncertainty in systemically important countries, such as the United States.

Massive unidentified debt is another reason why actual public debt is much higher than predicted.

An analysis of more than 30 countries found that 40% of unidentified debt comes from government contingent liabilities and fiscal risks, most of which are related to the losses of state-owned enterprises.

Looking back at history, the scale of unidentified debt has always been large, averaging 1% to 1.5% of GDP, and it has risen sharply during periods of financial stress.