Concerns about insufficient demand are beginning to dominate the market. On the afternoon of October 15th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil market report, stating that the growth of global oil demand will significantly slow down. As a result, international oil prices have dropped sharply, with the U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract falling below the $70 mark multiple times during the trading session.

As of 19:45, the WTI crude oil futures price fell by more than 4.1% to $70.77 per barrel, and the UK Brent crude oil futures contract fell by more than 3.8%, reporting $74.48 per barrel.

The IEA stated in its monthly report that the global oil demand growth rate for this year and next year will slow down from the previous 903,000 barrels per day to 862,000 barrels per day, and from 954,000 barrels per day to a slight increase of 998,000 barrels per day, but still significantly lower than the post-pandemic increase of 2 million barrels per day for the period of 2022-2023.

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It is said that China has a significant impact, with an estimated increase in China's oil demand for the next two years accounting for about 20% of the global new oil demand, while this proportion is close to 70% for the year 2023.

On the supply side, the IEA believes that ample global supply offsets the geopolitical risks faced by oil production in the Middle East and other regions. "As we have emphasized for some time, the global market appears to be well-supplied."

For the next two years, non-OPEC+ oil supply is expected to grow by about 1.5 million barrels per day, exceeding the expected increase in demand, with the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Australia contributing a larger share of the increase. The IEA stated that if no major accidents lead to oil supply disruptions, the international oil market will face a "large surplus" in the new year.

This is the third consecutive month that the IEA has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth, and not long ago, another organization, OPEC, just released its monthly market report, also lowering its forecast for oil market demand growth for the third consecutive month, but its forecast is still more optimistic than the IEA's forecast data.

On October 14th, OPEC disclosed its monthly crude oil report, predicting that global oil demand will increase by 1.93 million barrels per day this year, about 100,000 barrels per day less than its previous forecast. OPEC expects that government stimulus measures in China, a major oil-consuming country, will support oil demand in the fourth quarter, but oil consumption is facing challenges from other regional economies and the pressure of clean energy alternatives. The organization has lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast from 1.74 million barrels per day to 1.64 million barrels per day.

"In the short term, international oil prices may continue to fall," said Jin Lian Chuang analyst Ma Jiancai, who noted that the weakening of geopolitical panic sentiment in the international oil market and the weak demand outlook may suppress the trend of international oil prices.

Zhuo Chuang Information Researcher Li Xinyue also pointed out that as the geopolitical situation tends to ease, international oil prices have already begun to give back the premium at the beginning of the month. According to analysis, since the beginning of October, the crude oil market has focused on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. During the "Eleven" period, crude oil prices rose sharply due to the escalation of geopolitical risks, with the geopolitical premium possibly reaching $10 per barrel. Later, Israel's response to Iran was delayed, and the geopolitical sentiment cooled down.Li Xinyue believes that the current geopolitical premium has not been fully relinquished, and Israel's actual actions have not yet been implemented. The market may still experience a rapid emotional shift after Israel's response is in place. However, in the context of not affecting oil supply, the subsequent geopolitical premium will be quickly relinquished.

Reporters have noticed that both analytical institutions have emphasized the impact of an exclusive report published by The Washington Post on October 14, Eastern Time, on the oil market. According to the report, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu informed the U.S. government that Israel will target Iran's military facilities, rather than oil or nuclear facilities.

The newspaper stated that this demonstrates signs of restraint from the Israeli side, as there were previous concerns that an Israeli attack on Iran's oil or nuclear facilities could lead to a full-scale war in the region.