U.S. non-farm payrolls for September exceeded expectations with a substantial increase of 254,000, the highest in six months, while the previous figures for July and August were revised upwards by 72,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, reinforcing the expectation of a soft landing for the economy, which led traders and investment banks to withdraw bets on a significant rate cut in November.

Some traders even worry that the Federal Reserve might not cut rates by 25 basis points in November. The "new Fed mouthpiece" suggested that the September non-farm payrolls could close the door on a 50 basis point rate cut in November, making a 25 basis point cut more likely.

The data caused the U.S. dollar index to surge by over 60 points, breaking through 102 to a seven-week high. Spot gold prices approached $2630, U.S. stock index futures jumped before the market opened, U.S. Treasuries plummeted, and yields across the board rose by double digits. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged by 20 basis points, the best performance in six months. Traders' expectations for the cumulative rate cuts over the next four Federal Reserve meetings are less than 100 basis points, and they have also reduced bets on rate cuts in Europe and the UK.

Advertisement

According to CCTV News, the EU voted to pass the final draft of the anti-subsidy case against electric vehicles, which will impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Germany led strong opposition. However, the European automotive sector once rose by more than 2%, with Volvo, Volkswagen, and Renault's European stocks all rising by about 3%.

The market continues to focus on tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rising for four consecutive days and more than 9% for the week. U.S. President Biden said he is considering sanctions on Iranian oil, causing oil prices to give up an earlier gain of 2%. Goldman Sachs stated that if an Israeli attack leads to a reduction in Iranian oil production of 1 million barrels per day for a period, oil prices could surge by $10 to $20 per barrel. Another analysis suggests that if conflicts escalate over the weekend, gold futures could easily rise back to $2700 or even reach new highs.

On Friday, October 4th, boosted by expectations of a soft economic landing, U.S. stocks opened collectively higher, with Chinese concept and technology stocks leading the way. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up by more than 230 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose by more than 1%, the small-cap index rose by 1.5%, and the Chinese concept index, which rose by 2.4%, significantly led the way. Subsequently, the U.S. stock market's upward trend continued to expand and closed at its daily high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by more than 340 points to a new high, Tesla rising by nearly 4%, and AMD rising by nearly 5%. The Chinese concept index rose by more than 3% and rose by nearly 12% for the week:

U.S. stock indices rose across the board. The S&P 500 index closed up 51.13 points, a gain of 0.90%, at 5,751.07 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, closely related to the economic cycle, closed up 341.16 points, a gain of 0.81%, at 42,352.75 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 219.37 points, a gain of 1.22%, at 18,137.85 points. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.22%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the Nasdaq 100, closed up 1.24%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed up 1.50%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by nearly 7%, approaching 20.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly rose, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.1%, the chip index fell by 0.2%, and the small-cap index fell by 0.6%. The S&P Energy sector rose by more than 7% for the week, the best performance in nearly two years. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by more than 3%, leading for the first time since February 1, 2023, closing above the psychological threshold of 8,000 points, rising by nearly 12% for the week and rising for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 36.77% since the close on September 23.

U.S. industry ETFs generally closed higher, with the airline industry ETF leading with a rise of more than 3.3%. The Global Airline Industry ETF rose by 3.34%, the Internet Stock Index ETF and the Regional Bank ETF rose by more than 2%, the Banking ETF, the Financial Industry ETF, the Semiconductor ETF, the Discretionary Consumption ETF, and the Technology Industry ETF rose by 1.85% to 1.11%, while the Utilities ETF closed down by 0.16%.

In terms of research and investment strategy, Bank of America cited EPFR Global data stating that as of the week ending October 3rd, the recent weekly fund inflows into China stock funds and global emerging market stock funds both reached the second-highest historical levels, at $13.9 billion and $15.5 billion, respectively. Investors flocked to large-cap Chinese ETFs, with the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) seeing inflows of $1.4 billion on Thursday, more than doubling the previous record.Among the "Tech Seven Sisters," only Microsoft declined while Meta set a new record high. Apple closed up by 0.5%, Nvidia closed up by 1.7%, Tesla closed up by 3.9%, Microsoft closed down by 0.12%, Google A closed up by 0.7%, Meta closed up by 2.3%, and Amazon closed up by 2.5%.

In terms of news, Apple is expected to launch the iPhone SE 4 next spring, which will feature an Apple-designed 5G modem and an OLED screen for the first time, with a price tag likely ranging from $459 to $499. Before OpenAI, Meta's version of Sora has been released, named Meta Movie GenSora, which can create high-definition long videos of various aspect ratios and includes many features that Sora lacks, such as generating accompanying background music and sound effects, editing videos based on text commands, and generating personalized videos based on user-uploaded images. J.P. Morgan Securities believes that if Amazon adopts Rivian electric trucks and autonomous driving technology for medium-distance transportation and abandons internal combustion engine trucks, it could save more than $20 billion in costs annually.

Chip stocks rose across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.6% but fell by 0.2% for the week, with the industry ETF SOXX closing up by 1.4%; Nvidia's double-long ETF closed up by 3.3%. Intel closed up by 1.5%, TSMC ADR closed up by 0.9%, Broadcom closed up by 2.8%, Arm Holdings closed up by 1.7%, Micron Technology closed up by 0.4%, Applied Materials closed up by 1.2%, ASML ADR edged up slightly, KLA closed up by 1.7%, AMD closed up by 4.9%, and Qualcomm closed slightly down.

AI concept stocks saw more gains than losses. Dell Technologies closed up by more than 4%, while Super Micro Computer closed down by 0.8%. Serve Robotics closed up by 11%, CrowdStrike closed up by nearly 3%, BullFrog AI closed down by more than 3%, Nvidia's AI voice company SoundHound AI closed flat, BigBear.ai closed up by 1.7%, C3.ai closed up by 4.6%, Snowflake closed up by 3.9%, Oracle closed up by 2.4%, and Palantir closed up by about 2%.

Chinese concept stocks continued to strengthen. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up by more than 3%, with a weekly gain of nearly 12% and four consecutive weeks of gains, returning to its highest level since February last year. The China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up by 5.7%, with a weekly gain of 20.30%, following last week's 23.25% gain. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed up by 3.3%, with a weekly gain of 13.2%, following last week's 26.79% gain. The FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed up by nearly 11%, with a weekly gain of 35.22%, following last week's 59.50% gain; the FTSE China 3x Short ETF (YANG) closed down by nearly 10%.

The "China Dragon" ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) closed up by about 2%, with a pre-market gain of nearly 13%, and Friday was its second day listed in the United States. The Xtrackers Harvest CSI 50 (ASHS) closed up by 6.03%, and the Deutsche Bank Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF (ASHR) closed up by 5.26%. The FTSE A50 night futures closed up by more than 0.9%, reaching a new high since January 2012.

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Bilibili, NIO, Li Auto, Alibaba, and Baidu all closed up by more than 1%, XPeng Motors closed up by more than 3%, Tiger Brokers closed up by nearly 35%, Ctrip closed up by nearly 6%, but Fangdd closed down by nearly 33%. Flash delivery company BingEx Ltd. (ADR code FLX) opened flat on its first day of the U.S. IPO, reporting $16.50. It rose by 33% to nearly $22, closed up by more than 9%, and was temporarily suspended during the trading day due to excessive volatility. The company provides services to individuals and enterprises in China.

Other key stocks: 1) Reports say Tencent is considering acquiring the French game company Ubisoft, with Ubisoft's European stocks rising by more than 33%. 2) "Tesla's rival" Rivian closed down by more than 3% after falling by nearly 9%, downgrading this year's car production guidance, and its third-quarter delivery volume was lower than expected, attributed to supply chain disruptions causing production interruptions. 3) U.S. low-cost airline Spirit Airlines plummeted by more than 37% and closed down by more than 24% to a historical low, with reports that the company is discussing potential bankruptcy filing terms with bondholders, suspended its merger with JetBlue in March by regulatory authorities, and has suffered a significant decline this year. 4) CVS Health rose by 2.6%, considering spinning off its retail pharmacy and health insurance departments and conducting a strategic assessment of its business, seen as a major reversal of its long-term strategy. 5) Among airline stocks, low-cost carrier Frontier Group closed up by 16.43%, JetBlue Airways rose by 14.24%, United Airlines and American Airlines both rose by about 6.4%.

Driven by optimistic sentiment, European stocks expanded their gains at the end of the day, ending a four-day losing streak, but still fell for the week. The oil and gas sector continued to rise with oil prices, and automotive stocks turned positive, with the Italian stock index closing up by more than 1%. U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers ended their strike, and European shipping stocks fell in unison as they lost the opportunity to seize market share, with Danish shipping giant Maersk falling by more than 8% at one point:

The European STOXX 600 Index closed up by 0.44%, at 518.56 points, with a weekly loss of 1.80%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed up by 0.68%, with a weekly loss of 2.22%. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 Index closed up by 0.33%, with a weekly loss of 1.80%.

The German DAX 30 Index closed up by 0.55%, ending a four-day losing streak, with a weekly loss of 1.81%. The French CAC 40 Index closed up by 0.85%, with a weekly loss of 3.21%. The Italian FTSE MIB Index closed up by 1.28%, with a weekly loss of 3.23%. The British FTSE 100 Index closed down by 0.02%, with a weekly loss of 0.48%. Oil prices led the Norwegian stock index to a weekly gain of more than 3%.Markets have downgraded expectations for interest rate cuts from central banks in Europe, the United States, and the United Kingdom. U.S. Treasury bonds have plummeted, with yields across the board surging by double digits, with short-term bond yields increasing more significantly. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 22 basis points to 3.92%, marking the best gain in six months and reaching a four-week high. The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield increased by nearly 14 basis points to 3.99%, hitting a two-month high. European bond prices followed the U.S. Treasury decline:

U.S. Treasuries: At the close, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 22 basis points to 3.9259%, which was below 3.73% before the release of the non-farm employment data at 20:30 Beijing time, accumulating a rise of 36 basis points for the week. The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose by more than 13 basis points, reaching a daily high of 3.9827%, accumulating an increase of more than 22 basis points for the week.

European Bonds: At the close, the 10-year German bond yield increased by 6.6 basis points to 2.210%, marking three consecutive days of gains and accumulating a rise of nearly 8 basis points for the week, overall showing a V-shaped reversal trend. The two-year German bond yield increased by more than 12 basis points to 2.203%, accumulating a rise of nearly 13 basis points for the week. The 10-year British bond yield increased by more than 11 basis points, accumulating a rise of more than 15 basis points for the week, while the two-year British bond yield rose by 17 basis points, marking the largest increase in four and a half months, accumulating a rise of about 20 basis points for the week.

Safe-haven demand and favorable economic data have driven the U.S. Dollar Index to rise for five consecutive days this week, breaking through 102 to reach a seven-week high and ending four weeks of consecutive declines. The weekly performance was the best since September 2022. The Euro and British Pound have fallen for six consecutive days, the Japanese Yen has fallen by more than 1%, once breaking below 149 to a seven-week low, and fell by 4.7% for the week. The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) has fallen for six consecutive days, once falling by 500 points and breaking through 7.10 Yuan, erasing gains since September 18. Bitcoin has rebounded above $62,000:

Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by up to 0.7% to 102.69, reaching the highest in seven weeks since August 16, and stood above the 50-day moving average for the second consecutive trading day, accumulating a rise of 2.2% for the week.

Non-U.S. currencies普遍下跌: The Euro against the U.S. Dollar fell by up to 0.37%, breaking through 1.10, reaching the lowest in seven weeks since August 15, accumulating a fall of 1.8% for the week. The British Pound against the U.S. Dollar fell by up to 0.4%, once breaking below 1.31, reaching the lowest in three weeks since September 12, accumulating a fall of 2% for the week.

Japanese Yen: The Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar fell by up to 1.4%, once breaking below 149, reaching the lowest in seven weeks since August 16, falling for three consecutive days and accumulating a fall of 4.7% for the week.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH): The offshore Chinese Yuan against the U.S. Dollar fell by up to 500 points or 0.7%, once breaking through 7.10 Yuan, falling for six consecutive days and erasing gains since September 18, accumulating a fall of more than 1100 points or 1.7% for the week.

Cryptocurrencies: The largest market capitalization leader, Bitcoin, rose by more than 2% to rebound above $62,000, accumulating a fall of more than 5% for the week. The second-largest Ethereum rose by nearly 4%, breaking through $2400 and moving away from a two-week low. At the New York close, the CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract was reported at $62,720.00, up by 2.80% compared to the New York close on Thursday, with a cumulative fall of 5.17% for the week. The CME Ethereum futures DCR main contract was reported at $2,440.00, up by 3.41% compared to Thursday, with a cumulative fall of 10.43% for the week.

The market continues to worry about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East leading to supply disruptions, especially concerns about Israel attacking Iran's oil infrastructure. Oil prices have risen for four consecutive days, with a surge of more than 2% on Friday to a five-week high, with Brent crude once breaking through $79. At the close, the gains narrowed, with both Brent and WTI accumulating a rise of more than 9% for the week, with WTI marking the best single-week performance since October 2022. European natural gas also rose to a five-week high.US Oil: WTI November crude oil futures closed up $0.67, nearly 0.91% higher, at $74.38 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 9.09%. On Friday, it rose by up to $1.84 or 2.5%, briefly breaking through $75, reaching the highest level in five weeks since August 30th.

Brent Oil: Brent December futures closed up $0.43, 0.55% higher, at $78.05 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 9.10%. On Friday, it rose by up to $1.67 or 2.2%, breaking through $79 for the first time since August 30th, with speculators' bullish sentiment on Brent oil also reaching a five-week high.

Natural Gas: NYMEX November US natural gas futures closed down by more than 3.90%, at $2.8540 per million British thermal units, with a weekly decline of more than 1.65%. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures once rose by more than 3% to a five-week high, with a weekly increase of more than 7.3%, while the EU carbon tax fell by more than 6% this week.

Strong employment eliminates expectations of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and the rebound of the US dollar and US Treasury yields both put pressure on gold prices for two consecutive days. Gold experienced its first weekly decline in four weeks, but silver rose for four consecutive days to a twelve-year high. Nickel in London closed up about 2.3% on Friday, with a weekly increase of more than 5.8%:

Gold: COMEX December gold futures closed down by 0.50% at $2,665.79 per ounce. Spot gold fell the most by $24 or 0.9% after the non-farm data was announced before the US stock market, approaching $2,630, then narrowed its decline to 0.2% and rose back above $2,650. At the end of the day, the decline slightly widened to 0.5%, hovering around $2,640, with a weekly decline of 0.5%, ending three consecutive weeks of gains.

Silver: COMEX December silver futures closed down by 0.15%, at $32.415 per ounce. Spot silver also fell by 1.6% after the non-farm data, losing $32, but then turned up by 2.9% and approached $33, rising for four consecutive days to the highest level since 2012, with a significant narrowing of gains to 0.3% at the end of the day, trading at $32.15, with a weekly increase of 1.7%.

London industrial metals generally rose: LME copper futures closed up by $78 or 0.8%, at $9,944 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.4%. LME aluminum futures closed up by $24, at $2,653 per ton. LME zinc futures closed up by $42, more than 1.3% higher, at $3,166 per ton, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.46%. LME lead futures closed up by $7, at $2,150 per ton. LME nickel futures closed up by $403, a 2.29% increase, at $17,992 per ton, with a weekly increase of 5.86%. LME tin futures closed up by $96, at $33,805 per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.71%. LME cobalt futures were flat, at $24,300 per ton.

The following content was updated before 22:00 on October 4th:

On Friday, October 4th, US stocks opened collectively higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average starting the day up by more than 230 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up by more than 1%. The small-cap index rose by 1.5%.

The US September non-farm employment data released before the market opened showed a significant increase of 254,000 people, with the previous number revised upwards and the unemployment rate falling again, all confirming the expectation of a soft landing for the US economy, which also led traders to withdraw bets on a significant rate cut in November.The broad market of technology stocks saw an increase. Ctrip's stock rose by about 7%, JD.com's by about 3%, AMD and Tesla's by nearly 4%, Amazon's by nearly 3%, and Nvidia's by over 2%. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.4%, significantly outperforming the overall US stock market.

However, Rivian, dubbed "Tesla's fierce rival," saw its stock drop by about 5% after the company lowered its vehicle production forecast for 2024. Spirit Airlines, a low-cost US carrier, plummeted by 35% as reports indicated the company was discussing potential bankruptcy filing terms with bondholders.

US Treasury prices plummeted, with yields across the board soaring in double digits, with short-term debt yields increasing more significantly. The two-year US Treasury yield rose by over 14 basis points, nearing 3.86%, the 10-year base debt yield increased by 10 basis points to 3.95%, and the five-year yield rose by 15 basis points to 3.78%.

Oil prices continued to rise, with US crude oil surpassing $74 and Brent crude breaking through $78, with a weekly increase of about 9%. Goldman Sachs stated that if a potential attack by Israel leads to a sustained reduction of 1 million barrels per day in Iran's oil production, oil prices could surge by $10 to $20 per barrel.

The US Dollar Index surged by over 60 points after the release of the non-farm data, breaking through 102, while spot gold once fell towards $2640. US stocks initially narrowed their losses and traded at $2650.

Below is an article from Wall Street Journal before the US stock market opened:

On Friday, October 4th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the non-farm employment population increased by 254,000 people in September, far exceeding the expected 150,000; the September unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected and previous 4.2%.

Recently, Goldman Sachs trader Flood warned, "The stock market hopes that the non-farm data will be roughly in line with expectations. Overheating or underheating will accelerate weekend risk-avoiding behavior (obviously, underheating is much worse)."

After the data was announced, the US Dollar Index surged by over 60 points, currently reporting 102.49.

US stock futures surged, with the NASDAQ 100 index futures rising by 0.6%.U.S. Treasury bonds fell, pushing yields up by 7 to 16 basis points. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond spiked by 16 basis points to 3.87%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose by 9 basis points to 3.94%.

Spot gold prices dropped sharply, currently trading at $2,641.21 per ounce.

In terms of news, after the data release, traders also reduced their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut in November, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by less than 100 basis points over the next four meetings.

[Updated at 20:54]

The Chinese yuan fell. The offshore yuan dropped nearly 400 points against the U.S. dollar during the day, currently trading at 7.0892.

[Updated at 20:42]

U.S. stock futures extended gains, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures up 1%.