Since the beginning of autumn this year, most areas in our country have experienced excessive rainfall, which has had an adverse impact on vegetable production due to the overcast and rainy weather with little sunshine. The excessive rainfall has also affected the harvesting, distribution, and transportation of vegetables, leading to a shortage in the supply of some vegetables.

As the transition of production areas is completed, the vegetable supply chain is expected to become more smooth, and the tight supply of vegetables is likely to be alleviated. If there are no disastrous weather conditions, the average price of vegetables nationwide will gradually enter a seasonal decline.

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Recently, many citizens have noticed an increase in the price of vegetables in the market. According to the data on the national wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of vegetables increased by 21.7% in August, 6.5% in September, and 1.6% in October (as of the 11th). Some vegetables have seen a significant short-term increase in prices, such as green peppers, tomatoes, and wax gourd, which saw month-on-month increases of 45.6%, 35.2%, and 19.9% respectively in September.

"Recently, the price of vegetables across the country has been rising continuously," said Kong Fantao, Deputy Director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

Why have vegetable prices risen significantly recently? An Min, a research assistant at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that this is related to the excessive rainfall. Since the beginning of autumn this year, most areas in our country have experienced excessive rainfall, which has had an adverse impact on vegetable production due to the overcast and rainy weather with little sunshine. In mid-to-late September, under the combined effects of rainy weather and strong cold air, there was a significant drop in temperature in vegetable-producing areas such as Northeast China, central and western Inner Mongolia, and northern North China, leading to the early withdrawal of summer vegetables in cool areas and a corresponding delay in the market time of autumn vegetables, resulting in a shortage in the supply of some vegetables. Excessive rainfall also affected the harvesting, distribution, and quality of vegetables. After the rain, the fields were severely flooded, which was not conducive to the entry of harvesting personnel and machinery into the fields, nor was it conducive to the transportation of vegetables. In addition, some production areas experienced heavy rainfall, leading to a decline in the quality of some vegetables due to waterlogging and an increase in losses. Later, as temperatures dropped rapidly in many places, farmers harvested a large amount of vegetables from the fields to reduce losses, resulting in uneven quality and increased price differences.

The good news is that the vegetable supply is gradually improving. At the Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, Chinese cabbage from southern Hebei has already started to enter the market; radishes from Langfang, Hebei, and zucchini from Dezhou, Shandong are replacing the supply from the summer cool production areas; Yucheng in Dezhou, Shandong is gradually becoming the main source of celery; Liaocheng, Weifang in Shandong, Chaoyang in Liaoning, and Langfang in Hebei have begun to become the main suppliers of cucumbers; cabbage from Langfang, Baoding, and Tangshan in Hebei has started to enter the market and will soon become the mainstream; cauliflower and broccoli from Langfang in Hebei have started to enter the market, and the tight supply situation will also be alleviated.

Liu Tong, the manager of the Statistics Department of the Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, said that the most tense stage of vegetable supply has passed, and the subsequent vegetables from the production areas have begun to enter the market. At present, the only vegetables with poor supply chain continuity are tomatoes, peppers, and some types of beans, which will also be alleviated after a while.

"We should view the sharp fluctuations in the short-term prices of individual vegetable varieties rationally," An Min said. First, there is uncertainty in meteorological factors. Under market economy conditions, price fluctuations of vegetables are a normal phenomenon and a specific manifestation of the operation of the market mechanism. The weather has a great impact on vegetables, and once the weather changes, it will have a great impact on vegetable production. Second, the supply of our country's vegetable market has the basic attribute of "production area conversion." Once there is a break in production area conversion, vegetable prices will fluctuate, and regional and stage-specific price fluctuations of individual vegetable varieties are inevitable. Third, the price fluctuations of individual vegetables are often temporary. Vegetable varieties have strong substitutability. When there is an abnormal increase in vegetable prices, consumers will often turn to choose other vegetables with relatively stable prices and substitutability, which will to some extent suppress the abnormal price fluctuations. Due to the existence of fast-growing leafy vegetables such as amaranth, bok choy, and water spinach, the supply gap can often be quickly filled to some extent. Fourth, in addition to weather factors, the trend of vegetable prices is also affected by other factors such as market supply and demand, transportation costs, and policy regulation.

For the future market, industry experts believe that as the production area conversion is completed, the vegetable supply chain will become more smooth, and the tight supply of vegetables is expected to be alleviated. If there are no disastrous weather conditions, the average price of vegetables nationwide will gradually enter a seasonal decline.